taz: Mr. Marche, in your book “Uprising in America” you predicted a new civil war in the USA in 2022 and ran through scenarios. What’s happening in Minnesota seems more dangerous than much of what’s in your book.
Stephen Marche: Oh yes. When I imagined possible conflicts between different levels of government, I thought they would arise at the county level because sheriffs have a specific view of their role in the constitution. But now we see: police chiefs are asking ICE to leave their districts. Governors are talking about deploying their state’s National Guard. This is all incredibly dangerous. But technically it’s not yet a civil war. Political analysts see what we are seeing now as one-sided violence against the civilian population.
taz: Donald Trump’s deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller recently tweeted that Minnesota police had “surrendered.” He sees the situation as a federal war against local and regional authorities.
Marche: Yes, but it is unclear who is standing where. I doubt that the various security forces – the police, the National Guard, the army – know it themselves. Are you loyal to the mayor? The governor? The president? Or just to yourself? That’s what’s really dangerous: If no one knows who’s in charge anymore, then gasoline is poured into an already flammable situation.
The bad thing is: everyone is armed to the teeth. If there is only one shootout, what happens? The National Guard is not very well trained. Many local police forces are often little more than prison guards. And then there is ICE, made up of people who are loyalists to a Mad King. Trump recruited violent young men – MMA fighters, mercenary types – and handed them weapons after 47 days of training. What they are taught is: Commit violence – and make it look spectacular.
taz: I’m surprised and impressed by the amount of people in Minnesota who stand up for their values.
Marche: I’m not surprised that there are a lot of Americans who are very decent. But then there is the middle of society that just carries on as if nothing were happening. They continue on vacation to Cape Cod. The bit of bad news… oh, and what is the new trendy drink? Which smoothie flavor should I try with cannabis this time? All this crap. And in between there are a few real monsters.
America always considered itself to be the exceptional country in history. Surprise: you are like everyone else! There are monsters, there are heroes and a large, indifferent mass. It’s at moments like this in history that you realize who you are. The people on Minnesota’s streets are figuring out who they are, just as ICE agents are figuring out who they are.
taz: Why did Trump choose Minnesota?
Marche: Going to Minnesota to wage war against the people there is madness. Some of the friendliest people in the USA live there. You can get pretty far in America bashing black and brown people; That’s cynical but true. This works in many states. But Minnesota? Even on Fox News they said, “We’re at war with red wine moms.” Mothers who drink wine – that is America. America is made of mothers who drink wine!
taz: What would happen if all these wine mothers disappeared?
Marche: Minnesota is one of the last places where bipartisan decisions are still made. The Republicans there are not all crazy, there are conservative people who make compromises, the way politics is intended. Minnesota is one of the least divided states in the union. Large parts of America are now one-party states. Minnesota is not. I think Trump’s aim is to destroy that, to undermine the idea of negotiable politics. He wants to ensure that no one remains apolitical. He wants to radicalize everyone. He wants there to be no place anywhere in the United States outside of this toxic, narcissistic television politics that drives everything. This does not fall under the scope of state terrorism, it is a category of its own. It occurs in countries heading towards civil war.
taz: When did you cross the threshold to civil war?
Marche: One can say: Political violence is taking over the role that the word used to play. Instead of resolving conflicts, people are killed. And America is at a point where spectacular violence drives politics like speeches or programs used to. Formally, the country may not yet meet the definition of a civil war, but that is just a technical question. The important thing is that you have to find a way out of the violence before anything else can happen. Finding your way out of violent politics is a nightmare. It is extremely difficult to get countries out of such cycles of violence. This usually only happens after a military defeat or epidemics that wipe out entire cities. This is not a story with a happy ending.
taz: Trump obviously wants to create this chaotic situation. Why?
Marche: He’s in a somewhat delusional state. It’s like trying to analyze a meth junkie rummaging through his pockets on the street looking for something to smoke. You are dealing with someone who is not mentally present. Maybe he just woke up and was angry at Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar — and that was enough to send ICE to Minnesota. Or more banal: Did Melania give him a blowjob today? If he had, he might not have moved to Minnesota. I think he reacts to stimuli like a toddler without object permanence. And he is surrounded by people who do what he says. For me this is proof that the system has collapsed. They can no longer contain this madness.
taz: As chaotic and unpredictable as his behavior is, the goal remains autocratic rule?
Marche: The only logic that runs through is that of personal power and enrichment. The New York Times reported that he enriched himself by $1.4 billion during his presidency. He is a pirate king. At the expense of everything else. There is no limit. If North Korea bombed Seattle, their first reaction would be: How am I doing now? He has no values. None at all.
taz: Are there historical models for this?
Marche: I always have him as leader described, a leader driven by greed who demands absolute personal loyalty. The USA is not a failed European country, but a very successful Latin American country. But even there you don’t think: I hope the parents of the people I killed still like me. Trump said this after the death of Renée Good, whose father was his supporter: I hope he still likes me. This is a level of need that knows no bounds. There is no other layer underneath – just emptiness, constant hunger. In some ways, this is exactly what Trump represents his country. A limitless need, an insatiable hole that can never be filled.
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taz: Is there hope that Trump will recognize how unpopular ICE’s actions are? Or that he acknowledges that the threat against Greenland only has a 4 percent approval rating in the United States?
Marche: There is hardly an issue on which there is greater agreement among the population: No war with Greenland! But I think Trump doesn’t care as long as he gets attention. I think we’re dealing with the logic of a rapist. I think he wants Denmark to hate him while at the same time giving in to him. He wants his opponents to hate him while at the same time following him.
taz: If this continues, what will happen then?
Marche: The midterms worry me. All boundaries and norms have fallen. The courts are getting weaker every day. Congress essentially no longer exists. What kind of election will this be, considering that Trump is willing to restrict civil rights as a show of force, not even to get votes, but simply for show? How badly is this election rigged?
taz: Is the United States still a democracy?
Marche: In Canada, we have believed for at least a year that America is no longer part of the free world, that it is no longer a haven of democracy but a danger to it. Today, US power is a threat to democracy and freedom. It’s not a cop-out that they’re simply stealing Venezuela’s oil because they feel like it. The Pirate King may die, but the pirates continue to run the ship. To be honest, I have little hope for a restoration of democratic conditions, not in the sense of a return to the times before 2016, when the institutions were at least halfway functioning. The president is talking about destroying the entire world order. There are maybe four Republicans who even speak up. Trump has shown that there is rot at the core of the American system. This can no longer be undone.
taz: Is it self-deception if the American left or the Democrats believe that it is enough to win back the Senate in the midterms?
Marche: If there is an actual election, the Democrats might win a few seats in Congress, some representatives make nice speeches, but no one listens to them. The older Democrats are unable to recognize this reality. Some of the younger ones understand it, but this leads to a new situation: If you want to restore order, you will have to wage massive power struggles within the military, FBI and ICE. Either you fight these institutional wars or you wait for the others to strike. America is heading into a situation where there are no good options left. No matter what decisions you make, they lead to ruin. People in the US feel this. They know this is a country that is coming to an end.