Acts as a kind of thermometer of global politics the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos. Strong turbulence is to be expected in the next two years, according to the WEF’s new world risk report. “Geoeconomic confrontation” and wars between states are now the two top risks. In contrast to previous years, the concern is shifting Weather extremes to third place.
The risk report is based on a regular survey of approximately 1,300 world-leading company executives, experts from politics, science and civil society. The annual forum in the Swiss mountains starts next Monday. It is a huge congress with thousands of managers and politicians. 64 heads of state and government have announced their participation so far, said WEF President Borge Brende, including the leaders of the largest western states. US President Donald Trump is also scheduled to appear. Chancellor Friedrich Merz is also traveling to the snow-covered town at an altitude of 1,500 meters.
Half of those surveyed fear “turbulent” or “stormy” situations for the global economy and politics in the next two years. In the 2025 risk report, only a third commented in this direction. In 2024 it was 30 percent.
“Geoeconomic confrontation” is now number 1 on the risk hit list – with 18 percent of mentions. This includes, for example, disputes over high tariffs such as those triggered by Trump. “Armed conflicts” now follow in second place with 14 percent of the mentions, with not only the Russian attack on Ukraine and the Gaza war, but also the attack by Israel and the USA on the Iranian nuclear facilities likely to have played a role. Last year, such issues were ranked No. 1 and No. 3. In 2024, they were not listed among the top five risks.
Multilateral cooperation less intensive
“A new world order” is taking shape in which major powers define their spheres of interest, said Brende. This finding in the risk report is not rocket science. The mood barometer of the world elite often reflects what also concerns the normal population. The current concerns are pushing the climate issue further back, which, for example, was still at the top of the risk ranking in 2024. However, viewed over the next ten years, it remains highly relevant for the survey participants. Weather extremes, ecosystem collapse and climate change occupy the top three positions in long-term risk perception.
Before the start of the congress, the WEF also published the latest edition of its “Barometer of Global Cooperation”, although this only lasts until the end of 2024. Accordingly, the intensity of multilateral, peaceful cooperation in which the majority of states can participate on an equal basis has decreased. This decline was caused, among other things, by the attacks by Russia on Ukraine and by Hamas on Israel – violations of the United Nations Charter.
However, cooperation is increasing in other fields, such as in climate policy, says the WEF. As examples, it cites the EU policy to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in industry and an agreement on energy cooperation between Laos, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. The thesis is that topic-specific and regional cooperation can counteract the current decline in multilateralism.
Global round table
With this in mind, this year’s forum is entitled “Spirit of Dialogue”. In any case, it sees itself as a global round table where equal discussions take place in order to “improve the state of the world”. A few leftists and ecologists are also invited and allowed to take part. With a few exceptions, the meeting in the mountains usually does not produce concrete, influential initiatives. Nevertheless, hundreds of CEOs come. The WEF is supported by the largest corporations in the world, and it also acts as their lobby organization.
This year the congress will take place for the first time since the early 1970s without its inventor Klaus Schwab instead of. The Ravensburg native no longer appears in the list of active leading figures, he is only listed as “founder”. Allegations of alleged financial and organizational misconduct that appeared to have little substance used younger people to force Schwab out. He had delayed his departure even though he was already 87 years old.