S Please don’t write me any messages in the next few hours. If I get arrested, they won’t be allowed to find our chat,” says F. in her last voice message. It’s Thursday, January 8th, 2026. She wants to join the protests. It’s the first time she’s gone since the Woman-Life-Freedom protests in 2022. She’s nervous. Since then: nothing.
I don’t dare write to her or anyone else in Iran. My friends in the Iranian diaspora are also waiting. Make sure that the second check mark appears in the message. On someone saying their families and friends are alive, on a phone call, some message. Meanwhile, new death and arrest numbers are coming out every day. The number of those killed estimated at 5,000 to 18,000 depending on the sourceindependent confirmation is not yet possible.
There has never been such a complete digital lockdown before. The Iranian regime blocked the Internet in 2019, 2022 and June 2025. At that time, this primarily affected the connection between Iran and the outside world. This time, however, it goes beyond the familiar isolation: also communication and online services within the country are interrupted.
This makes the blackout tantamount to a war measure. Legally speaking, it is not a formal war. But the blocking of internet access violates basic human rightsincluding the right to freedom of information under Article 19 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR).
Individual shots are given enormous power
The blackout shows what has become possible in an information war. However, it does not open up a new technical dimension: media technology is first used for military purposes before it is used for civil purposes. The “silence” is interrupted at certain points. Individual images, calls and videos leak out. They show that the regime is shooting at protesters. Keeping track of things is difficult. Individual shots are given enormous power. This power is helpful when it creates solidarity with protesters, but can be dangerous when the wrong people use it. Because images don’t have to be true to be effective, information doesn’t have to be correct to achieve strategic success.
The course of image distribution and reactions also reveals questionable viewing habits. At the beginning it was apparently mainly men who went on strike and protested. These images spread only moderately quickly. However, from the moment women were seen – two examples: a woman posing for a selfie in front of a surveillance camera, another holding a body bag presumably containing her sister – the images became more widespread.
Where protests are suppressed, the diaspora is needed as an external resonance space
The blackout in Iran marks a new radicalization of information warfare. Without information, there is little chance of making events visible. If they are not documented, it will be difficult to hold those responsible for human rights violations accountable.
The gap in information is also used by international actors. This is how Donald Trump manages to present himself as a beacon of hope. He is calling for a political upheaval and threatening military intervention. However, it is overlooked that Trump has no interest in a progressive Iran but, as has been proven in other cases, primarily pursues his own strategic and economic interests.
Iran has a large diaspora
The son of the last shah and repressive ruler of Iran, Reza Pahlavi, is taking advantage of the situation to call for regime change. He lives in the USA and is close to the Trump administration. According to his own statements, Pahlavi wants to be a transitional figure, but his critics doubt this. He uses the silence enforced by the blackout to present himself as an alternative option. The blackout makes it unclear how much support he actually has in Iran.
The Islamic Republic itself is using the blackout and the international reaction to it to adapt its own rhetoric. The New National Security Council speaks of a preemptive strike (military attack with the intention of repelling an imminent, certain attack by the enemy, i.e. Red.) is possible. In contrast to a preemptive strike, which represents preventive self-defense in the event of a threat, there are hardly any comprehensible criteria as to the circumstances under which such a step would be carried out.
What is happening in Iran is not only directed against the people on the ground, but also against those who are forced to watch from outside. When asked how my Iranian friends are coping with the situation, they answer that they are looking for ways to avoid completely succumbing to powerlessness. As long as they can still do something, they’ll get by.
In contrast to Sudan, for example, Iran has a larger diaspora worldwide, which ensures that what is happening receives political and media attention. Where protests are suppressed and all communication is criminalized, the diaspora is needed as an external resonance space for voices that are to be silenced at home. However, people in the diaspora do not act as a uniform actor; they act, think and react differently. That’s why they argue about the future of the country.
However, the main focus should remain on the country itself, because the diaspora cannot speak or decide on behalf of the people in the country. There are now reports of a gradual restoration of national and international internet access. However, there is no guarantee of a complete or permanent return.
Still no message from F., she was last online on January 8, 2026. The first eyewitnesses managed to get out of Iran. Their reports are beyond what can be imagined.