Iran’s weapons arsenal: battered, but not defenseless

When Benjamin Netanyahu warned US President Donald Trump in mid-January to postpone a possible military strike against Iran, there was much speculation about what the reasons for his hesitation might be. As recently as December, Israel’s prime minister was pushing for a “second round” against the arch-enemy in Tehran. Strategic considerations may have played a role. A weakened regime is in Israel’s interest, but from Israel’s perspective a regime collapse could pose new dangers. But the time window may have been crucial. Because when it comes to hitting the opponent as sensitively as possible with the least possible losses, then timing is everything.

Tehran’s main deterrent is its arsenal of medium-range ballistic missiles. With that you can the mullahs’ regime hit almost any target in the Middle East, all the way to Tel Aviv. Although Israel managed to destroy hundreds of depots and rocket launchers in June 2025, after the end of the Twelve-Day War, according to Israeli estimates, Iran was still left with around 1,500 rockets and 200 rocket launchers. There are also an indefinite number of kamikaze drones, which are, however, easier to intercept.

This could allow Iran to shell Israel for several days, a scenario for which Israel is not yet prepared. The Israeli defense capacities were also used up in the twelve days, and the stocks of Arrow interceptor missiles were slowly running out. Since then, Israel has tried to restore its defense capabilities, but remains dependent on US support. It only arrived in the last few days, for example in the form of the aircraft carrier “USS Abraham Lincoln”.

For the USA, there is also the threat of Iranian short-range missiles. Although they cannot reach Israel, they can reach various American locations such as the Al-Udeid base in Qatar. The mullahs’ regime is militarily weakened, but not defenseless. In recent months it has been working to rebuild its military capacity. Active help came from Beijing.

Air defense weak point

There, the scenario of a collapse of the regime is being followed with great concern, if only for energy policy reasons: Since the reintroduction of American sanctions, Beijing has become the main buyer of Iranian oil – with a sanctions discount of around 10 US dollars per barrel. China is now supplying the Iranian army with sensitive ballistic missile components. These include chemicals for rocket fuel, but also microprocessors, which are intended to make it technically more difficult for the Israeli secret service to disable Iranian missiles through cyberattacks.

Iran’s biggest weakness is its weak air defense. During the Twelve Day War, Israel was able to use Iranian airspace almost unhindered to launch attacks on the country. In December, the former Iranian warned President Hassan Rouhanithat the airspace was still “completely safe” for the enemy.

How long it will stay that way is questionable. Here too, Tehran can count on Chinese support. By acquiring advanced Chinese radar systems, Iran could soon have anti-stealth radars capable of detecting enemy stealth aircraft, unlike conventional radar systems.

And there could be more to come: Last month, an Iranian media outlet, citing unnamed military sources, reported that Iran was working on chemical and biological warheads. The Damocles sword of an Iranian nuclear bomb has also not been finally eliminated. While the main Iranian nuclear sites in FordWhile Natanz and Isfahan have been “largely destroyed” according to the US, recent months have seen activity at a new nuclear site called Pickaxe Mountain, which appears to be hidden even deeper underground.

From Israel’s perspective, the ideal window of opportunity to attack Iran was not yet there, at least until recently. This is largely due to Iran’s powerful missile program. But the current window of opportunity could soon close again thanks to Chinese backing.