For many Iranians, the past month was marked by anger and protest, by the shedding of their blood and, above all, by waiting. Waiting for the fall of the Islamic Republic, waiting for foreign military intervention. Many in Iranian society have enormous hopes for US President Donald Trump’s promises. I have received hundreds of private messages from Iran in the last few weeks. They ask, “When will Trump attack?”
Maybe it started this Saturday afternoon. The US aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln had reached Centcom’s operational waters the previous week with a few destroyers – the regional command of the US armed forces, which is also responsible for Iran. Then the headline: “Explosion in Bandar Abbas.”
Shortly after the explosion came the unconfirmed reports: Admiral Alireza Tangsiri, commander of the Revolutionary Guards Navy, had been the target of a precision strike in Bandar Abbas. Others named Admiral Shahram Irani, commander of Iran’s regular navy, as the intended target. To date, only one of these incidents has been officially confirmed. However, a video released by a local reporter showed that one of the injured was wearing the uniform of Iranian law enforcement. He could have been a bodyguard for the actual target.
The Iranian authorities – long accustomed to concealing and manipulating numbers and names – followed the usual script: They immediately denied any security threat and attributed the incident to a gas leak. They confirmed only one death and fourteen injuries.
After the explosion in Bandar Abbas: was it a gas leak as the regime claims? Or maybe an attack?
Photo:
Amirhosein Khorgoi/ap
After news of the explosion in Bandar Abbas, reports quickly circulated of other explosions in Tabriz, Robat Karim-Parand – a city on the outskirts of Tehran – and Qom, one of the religious centers for Shiite clerics. Videos purportedly showing them went viral on social media. However, none of these explosions have yet been confirmed by official authorities.
What people in Iran think about an attack
After reports of the explosions rose among some in Iranian society there is hope of a military strike against the Islamic Republic. Through the bitter experiences of several waves of protests, many have come to a grim conclusion: the human cost of a military strike against the regime would probably be less than the number of deaths in further peaceful protests.
I have received numerous messages about this from citizens in different cities and regions in Iran. One of them writes via a messenger service: If the war starts, he wants to stay in Tehran. “Either I get killed or we win. But if I die, be our voice. Tell everyone we loved freedom.”
There is a kind of collective numbness in Iran today, the result of the bloody suppression of the protests. The Internet is working again more and more often, and more and more shocking images and videos end up on social networks: Families bringing their children’s bodies home so the authorities can’t steal them. People clutching the blood-covered corpses of their loved ones. People who are brutally beaten or killed by live ammunition.
Some write to me saying that they only see two options: an end to the regime or the end of their own lives.
A man released from prison tells the story
Among the many messages are those from a young student from Tehran. He should be called Saeed here, for his protection. He was already there during the protests in 2019 and again during the “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests 2022 been arrested. This time too, Islamic Republic security forces stormed his home. Saeed was then held in Evin prison for seven days.
When I die, be our voice. Tell everyone that we loved freedom
Message from Iran
He sends encrypted photos showing massive injuries to his lower back, spine, thighs, hands and arms. The skin torn, the flesh visible – no stitches, no medical attention. Signs of wound infection can be seen. Also traces of electric stun guns and batons.
He says: “From the moment they came, their intention was violence. In front of my mother, they repeatedly used a stun gun on me, even though I didn’t resist.” Saeed emphasizes that their approach this time was different than before: “They had no inhibitions about beating us prisoners to death.”
Trump plays with people’s nerves
Reports like Saeed’s are no exception. They stand for another dam break in the transition from oppression to crime. When torture and killing become routine, the word “crisis” is no longer appropriate.
The attention is now on Trump: every statement he makes about Iran plays on the nerves of countless people in Iran. Some react with gallows humor: They create memes, make jokes and express sarcasm about the US president’s erratic behavior. But in the end they only want one thing: the overthrow of the Islamic Republic. Even at the price of war.