A spokesman for the Beijing Defense Ministry confirmed on Saturday what most China experts have already speculated about: Zhang Youxia, the country’s highest-ranking general, is being investigated for “serious violations of party discipline and laws.” Liu Zhenli, also a member of the Communist Party’s Military Commission, was also hit.
What might seem like a side note to outsiders is actually a purge of unprecedented proportions. In recent years, President Xi Jinping has fired hundreds of officers, removed two defense ministers and fired several defense company boards. These often involved serious corruption scandals, including the leadership of the notorious missile forces.
And now the power center of the People’s Liberation Army has apparently been practically eliminated: of the once seven-member military commission, only two are left – one of them is Xi Jinping himself.
There is a lively debate about what that means. “As long as the command structure at central points is so compromised, I highly doubt that the People’s Liberation Army can carry out very ambitious operations effectively,” comments independent military expert Alex Luck – apparently alluding to a possible invasion of Taiwan.
Good news for Taiwan
Velina Tchakarova, founder of the geopolitical consulting firm FACE based in Vienna, also says: “This is a cleansing process of almost breathtaking proportions – and very good news for Taiwan. Japan and the USA“The logic behind this is clear: If Xi Jinping obviously doesn’t have his military under control, then Taiwan and China’s neighboring states shouldn’t have to worry much.
This is also supported by the fact that Zhang Youxia, the last Chinese general with actual war experience, was fired. At the end of the 1970s there was a short but bloody border war between the People’s Republic of China and Vietnam. The younger generation in the Chinese military may rhetorically agitate against the imperialist arch-enemy, the United States, but they have not yet experienced a single combat mission in practice.
But it’s worth taking a closer look at the reasons behind the investigation against Zhang, who incidentally is one of Xi Jinping’s close associates. Although the Defense Ministry’s original announcement on Saturday remained vague, an article in the People’s Liberation Army’s official daily newspaper has provided more clarity. In the CCP’s cumbersome bureaucratic style, it said that Zhang had “massively violated and undermined the chairman’s accountability system.” This makes it clear: This is by no means just a case of corruption.
The Wall Street Journal had reported, citing anonymous sources, that Zhang Youxia was accused, among other things, of passing secrets about China’s nuclear program to the United States. However, some experts consider the claim to be less than credible.
According to Lyle Morris of the Asia Society Policy Institute, a leading expert on China’s military, evidence suggests that Zhang has amassed too much power – a violation that control freak Xi Jinping will not tolerate.
Accordingly, there are also doubts as to whether the ongoing massive wave of purges is actually good news for Taiwan. Because Xi is obviously interested in bundling the decision-making processes in the military more closely in order to exercise absolute control. Seen from the outside, it certainly looks as if someone is trying, under great time pressure, to fundamentally reshape the People’s Liberation Army in order to make his lifelong dream of a “united motherland” a reality. Since Xi is already 72 years old, he doesn’t have much time left for this.