The Greens are catching up with the CDU in Baden-Württemberg. According to the new survey, there are probably not many coalition options.
The first voter survey in three months brings new momentum to the election campaign in the southwest. According to the Infratest dimap survey, the Greens are shortening the lead candidate Cem Özdemir their gap to the CDU by 3 percentage points and overtaking the AfD, which lost 1 percentage point. The CDU remains unchanged at 29 percent, the Greens are now at 23 percent, and the AfD is in third place with 20 percent.
According to the survey, the SPD is losing approval and would only get 8 percent, a minus of 2 percentage points compared to the survey in October and its worst value ever measured in Baden-Württemberg. The FDP would still be at 5 percent and would have to worry about entering the state parliament. According to the survey, the Left remains stable above the five percent threshold and could enter the state parliament for the first time with 7 percent.
According to these figures, there would not be many coalition options after the state elections. A majority would only have a new edition of the black-green coalition – but this time with CDU candidate Manuel Hagel as Prime Minister. According to the current figures, it would not be enough for a coalition with the SPD and FDP favored by Hagel. For comparison: In the state elections in March 2021, the Greens achieved 32.6 percent, the CDU got 24.1 percent, the SPD got 11, the FDP got 10.5 and the AfD got 9.7 percent.
But the election campaign remains open. According to the survey, if the Prime Minister were directly elected, 39 percent would vote for Cem Özdemir and only 19 percent for Manuel Hagel. A distant third is the AfD’s top candidate Markus Frohnmaier, who has announced that he will only move to Stuttgart as Prime Minister, otherwise he wants to remain in the Bundestag.
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First election under the new electoral law
When it comes to the question of which party can solve the country’s most important tasks, the CDU is ahead with 25 percent, ahead of the Greens with 17 percent, which in turn only do 1 percentage point better than the AfD. The Greens were most recently ahead on this issue in 2021.
In the state election on March 8th, a new voting law applies; for the first time, voters have two votes like in the federal election. The Greens are running an aggressive second vote campaign that is tailored entirely to the top candidate. How the changed voting law will affect the result is also an open question among experts.
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