Talks in Oman: What’s at stake between the US and Iran

dpa | After intensive mediation between regional states, representatives from the USA and Iran want to meet new ones today Negotiations in the Gulf state of Oman meet. However, both sides come with significantly different positions the conversations in the capital, Muscat, amid concerns about a new war. Answers to central questions:

Why are both sides suddenly negotiating?

The new round of negotiations between Washington and Tehran has many experts and also people in Iran initially surprised. During the height of Iranian protests against authoritarian rule US President Donald Trump signaled to the demonstrators: I stand by your side. In the middle of last month, Trump also spoke out in favor of a change of power in Iran and began to increase the American military in the region.

However, Trump suddenly signaled his willingness to negotiate. One reason for this is likely to be the crisis diplomacy of regional states such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, which maintain a pragmatic relationship with Tehran and fear a military escalation with serious consequences for their countries.

What interests does Trump pursue?

The US President has not yet clearly stated his goals in Iran. On the one hand, the massive military reinforcements signal that the USA is seriously preparing for a conflict with Tehran. Coupled with repeated statements about possible military intervention by his country, Trump also created a threatening atmosphere.

To this day he has not backed away from that – even though he now says that Iran wants a deal. His message to Tehran is now: A deal is your chance. If you knock them out, you risk us attacking you. With the help of the military threat, Trump is increasing the pressure on Iran to bow to his demands. Among other things, it demands that the range of ballistic missiles be limited and that domestic uranium enrichment be completely avoided.

Trump also sees his negotiating position strengthened by the US attack on Venezuela, which led to the capture of the authoritarian head of state Nicolás Maduro. Tenor of his message to Iran: In Venezuela you saw what we are capable of.

What are the conversations about?

The focus of the talks is the controversial Iranian nuclear program. Trump and the West want to prevent the Islamic Republic from obtaining nuclear weapons. While Tehran asserts that it will only use its nuclear program for civil purposes, the government is prepared to compromise on restrictions.

However, Tehran has defined several red lines to the outside world. They don’t want to give up the uranium enrichment industry completely, and questions about the rocket program are also non-negotiable. The mediating states are likely to use their influence primarily to avert a major regional war.

What does Iran’s leadership want to achieve?

During the last negotiations with the USA, the Iranian government had already set the goal of seeking a lifting of the harsh economic sanctions. The punitive measures have largely isolated the country from the international financial market and deterred investors. They are seen as an important reason for the catastrophic economic situation, which has hollowed out the middle class and pushed parts of the population to the brink of poverty.

This time, however, it’s likely to be about a lot more. “It’s time to look for new leadership in Iran,” Trump told the news portal Politico in mid-January. Concerns about war have dominated the headlines in Iran for weeks. To the outside world, the government and military demonstrate unity and readiness for military escalation. Behind the scenes, however, the state leadership may fear for its existence.

How do experts classify the negotiations?

The Middle East expert Daniel Gerlach said a few days ago on the ARD program “Caren Miosga” that he assumed that Iran would try to put the nuclear program in the foreground. Iran claims that there is only a civilian nuclear program and not a military one, but that is a negotiating tactic. Iran thinks it can gain the upper hand by dragging Trump into a marathon negotiation. This saves you time.

There is a conflict of objectives on the part of the USA. They want to limit Iran’s military capacities and stop the nuclear program as well as help the people of Iran and bring about a change of power. “If, on the one hand, you enter into negotiations with the regime, you cannot say that you actually want to overthrow it,” said Gerlach. The states in the region such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey also played a major role. Although they had an interest in weakening Iran militarily, they did not want to overthrow the government.

A retired Iranian professor believes the government is willing to make major compromises, contrary to its public statements. “I am sure Iran will accept all US demands,” the insider said. In return, he believes the government could demand the release of frozen accounts containing several billion dollars in the Gulf state of Qatar.

What do people in Iran think about negotiations with the USA?

The mass protests at the beginning of January have now died down, but the trauma of the brutal state crackdown on the demonstrations is still deep. The US-based human rights network HRANA says it has verified the deaths of at least 6,400 demonstrators.

Trump, who pledged his support to the demonstrators at the height of the uprisings, is also met with rejection for his willingness to negotiate in Iran. “The blood of young people that was shed must not be trampled on,” says Fatemeh (24), a young accountant from the capital Tehran. She is against negotiations. In her anger at the state apparatus’ response to the protests, only the thought of destruction gives her hope.

Muslim (36), teacher, doubts a quick result. He also secretly hopes for an escalation. “Of course, after the failure of the negotiations, there is still hope that a war will start,” he said, referring to possible attacks against Iran’s leadership. Majid (45), head of a transport company, says: “The government is giving everything away to survive out of fear of war and destruction.”

Mohammed (29), an employee and supporter of the government, welcomes the new negotiations. “Experience has shown that there is hardly a country that has been able to achieve economic growth without international interaction,” he says. That’s why he’s in favor of an agreement with the USA, “but not in favor of us just making concessions.”