It is the first time in eight years that a British prime minister has visited Beijing. And Keir Starmer not only has a huge business delegation with him, but also has extremely well-sounding words for his host: “I have always been clear that the UK and China need a long-term, consistent and comprehensive strategic partnership,” Starmer said on Thursday after his meeting with Xi Jinping.
And the leader of the Labor Party is not alone with this message. In fact, these days Western heads of government are literally lining up to get an audience with the Chinese party leader in the Great Hall of the People – even though the list of conflict issues with the People’s Republic is by no means getting smaller.
Seen from a bird’s eye view, a geopolitical paradigm shift is taking place in fast motion: traditional US allies, who had recently emphasized their transatlantic obligations, are now seeking equidistance from China.
No Chinese concessions necessary
The astonishing thing about this development is that the People’s Republic didn’t have to budge an inch on the crucial issues for this diplomatic streak of luck. Beijing continues to appear as dominant on the international stage as before, offers no improvements towards fair competition and continues to reject any criticism of human rights issues.
The fact that Emmanuel Macron (France), Micheál Martin (Ireland) and Alexander Stubb (Finland) traveled to the Chinese capital in just a few weeks is interpreted in Beijing as a pragmatic admission that things cannot happen without the world’s second largest economy.
Beijing’s biggest coup in January came from North America: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney promised a diplomatic reset with China – a few years ago, when the Chinese security apparatus put two Canadians, Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig, in prison on alleged espionage charges over a political disputethis would have been unimaginable.
Donald Trump drives heads of state to Beijing
Xi Jinping has only his supposed greatest adversary to thank for this. “Congratulations to the Trump administration for driving Great Britain, Canada, Australia and others into the arms of Beijing,” writes China expert Scott Kennedy from the Washington think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies. This means that the chances of being able to isolate China on the international stage in an emergency are now finally over.
“Beijing is neither making its offer more attractive nor less aggressive. It is, however, presenting a predictable alternative,” argues Ryan Hass from the Washington think tank Brookings Institution“While I don’t expect the US allies to move closer to Beijing, I do expect them to find a new balance between the US and China in the coming years.” In other words: Even if very few politicians in Europe have a naive image of China, they at least know where they stand when it comes to Beijing. Trump, on the other hand, is completely unpredictable even after a year in his second term.
Foreign investment in China
The geopolitical change of sides is also reflected in economic figures. During Starmer’s visit to Beijing, the British pharmaceutical giant Astra-Zeneca announced investments worth 15 billion dollars in China in the coming years in order to significantly expand drug production and research in the Middle Kingdom.
In addition, investments by German companies in the People’s Republic will have increased by over 50 percent in 2025 compared to the same period last year. “Instead of minimizing risks, German companies in China are focusing even more on growth. This will all end in tears,” criticizes China expert Andreas Fulda from the University of Nottingham.
Friedrich Merz will also be in Beijing soon
It remains to be seen whether there will be a political rapprochement between Berlin and Beijing. No official date has yet been announced for Friedrich Merz’s inaugural trip to China, but according to reports it should be at the end of February.
As an old-school transatlanticist, the German Chancellor always demonstrated a critical awareness of China’s systemic challenges. He spoke last at the World Economic Forum in Davosthat three developments have permanently changed the international world order: the Russian war against Ukraine, the strategic realignment of the USA under Donald Trump – and the rise of China as a world power.
It is still unclear what conclusions Merz will draw from the latter. It seems impossible that the black-red coalition will return to a Merkel-style China policy that prioritizes corporate interests without weighing up geopolitical risks. Nevertheless, it is clear: If not only China is a “systemic rival,” as it is expressly stated in the coalition agreement, but also Donald Trump is becoming increasingly hostile towards Europethen the real political conditions are likely to de facto force a certain rapprochement.