Some were in power for 14 years, others for just 16 months. Many in Britain don’t care about the difference between Conservatives and Labor and are tired of both established parties. The right-wing populist party is leading in the opinion polls Reform UK under Nigel Farage for a year, while the English and Welsh Greens also surged in popularity under left-wing populist Zack Polanski.
Both are at the expense of the old parties. Over a dozen dissatisfied conservative politicians from the old guard have resigned from their party in recent weeks and joined Nigel Farage – including former ministers Robert JenrickNadim Zadhawi, Nadine Dorries, Danny Kruger and most recently Suella Braverman. With each such defection, Reform UK looks less like a fresh alternative and more like a repository for failed right-wingers – but the Conservatives are still being weakened further.
Similar There is dissatisfaction within Labor. According to opinion polls, Keir Starmer is now the most unpopular prime minister of all time, and many ministers are more or less openly considering how to get rid of him in time for the next election.
The Labor crisis is now being brought to a head early on: in mid-January, Andrew Gwynne, constituency MP for Gorton and Denton on the north-eastern edge of Manchester, resigned from his seat – officially for health reasons, in fact because of the revelation of offensive and sexist comments towards female voters. The by-election in a once safe Labor constituency, expected on February 26, could now be an early decision on Starmer’s future.
Andy Burnham as Labour’s possible Starmer replacement
Andy Burnham, Manchester’s Labor mayor since 2017 and MP for the Manchester constituency of Leigh since 2001, wanted to stand as a candidate for the seat. Burnham has distinguished himself as mayor and broken away from his party leadership, similar to the Tories’ Boris Johnson when he was London’s mayor.
“King of the North” is Burnham’s nickname and he is one of Britain’s most popular politicians. As far as the political position of this political king is concerned, much like Johnson once did, it depends on who you ask. Some believe he is to the left of Starmer. Others recall that he once took a stand against Jeremy Corbyn while Starmer was still working with him. Compared to Starmer, Burnham appears noticeably freer and more casual, often making clearer political statements.
Many Labor politicians, particularly Starmer’s critics, welcomed Burnham’s desire to return to parliament and protect the old Labor stronghold of Gorton and Denton from Reform UK. But in order to run for the by-election he would have to give up his mayoralty in Manchester and bring about another election there. The threat of losing this stronghold was too risky for Labor. Last Sunday, the board voted almost unanimously against Burnham’s candidacy.
This didn’t happen without ulterior motives. Because as an MP, Burnham could also become Labor Prime Minister at some point. Burnham was already hyped as a potential successor to Starmer during the last Labor party conference in 2025. Although he denied these ambitions, he openly criticized the Prime Minister and called for more social policies. His allies include the former deputy party leader Angela Rayner and her successor Lucy Powell, who was elected in October – who now also received the only vote on the board for his candidacy.
Labor faces post-election disaster
Meanwhile, 50 Labor MPs have called for the decision against Burnham to be reversed. In vain: At the weekend, Labor fielded the little-known local politician Angeliki Stogia for the by-election. The immigrant Greek woman has already stood for Labor in the 2014 European elections and the 2024 general elections and lost both times.
While Labor fights, Reform UK has fielded right-wing intellectual TV presenter, commentator and academic Matt Goodwin, one of its heavyweights. The Greens are also hopeful, as they want to attract young voters with their young candidate Hannah Spencer in order to take over the constituency. Reform UK and the Greens want to replace the Conservatives and Labor respectively. If they succeed, Britain’s party political landscape would be on the verge of major upheaval.