Morgan Parker
Intel 18A Details & Cost, Future of DRAM 4F2 vs 3D, Backside Power Adoption (or Not), China’s FlipFET, Digital Twins from Atoms to Fabs, and More
Long time readers will recall that SemiAnalysis covers more than just datacenters and AMD. Today we’re back to…
Q1 2026 Timelines Update
We’re mostly focused on research and writing for our next big scenario, but we’re also continuing to think…
A forecast of Chinese DUV and EUV photolithography progress
This post was written in collaboration between the AI Futures Project and The Substrate and cross-posted to both.Restrictions…
Robotics Levels of Autonomy
Robots have powered manufacturing for decades, yet they stayed single-purpose and thrived only in perfect settings. Previous attempts…
AI 2040: Plan A
For the past year, we at the AI Futures Project have been sinking most of our time into…
Plan A: Suggestions For Further Work
Yesterday we released AI 2040: Plan A, but there’s lots of work left to do.We still have tons…
How to pace the US frontier
IntroductionLast week, the Pacing the Frontier open letter, signed by over 1,000 frontier AI employees, requested “the U.S.…
Scaling the Memory Wall: The Rise and Roadmap of HBM
The first portion of this report will explain HBM, the manufacturing process, dynamics between vendors, KVCache offload, disaggregated…
Q2.5 2026 Timelines Update: Uplift and Revenue
Tl;dr: Our timelines haven’t changed much (they got slightly shorter) but our modeling and evidence base have noticeably…
GPT-5 Set the Stage for Ad Monetization and the SuperApp
To many power users (Pro and Plus), GPT5 was a disappointing release. But with closer inspection, the real…
H100 vs GB200 NVL72 Training Benchmarks – Power, TCO, and Reliability Analysis, Software Improvement Over Time
Frontier model training has pushed GPUs and AI systems to their absolute limits, making cost, efficiency, power, performance…
Amazon’s AI Resurgence: AWS & Anthropic’s Multi-Gigawatt Trainium Expansion
Two-and-a-half years ago, we flagged a looming “cloud crisis” at AWS. Today, the evidence has mounted. AWS is…
Huawei Ascend Production Ramp: Die Banks, TSMC Continued Production, HBM is The Bottleneck
Compute is the lifeblood of AI. He who controls the spice controls the universe the compute will control…
Another Giant Leap: The Rubin CPX Specialized Accelerator & Rack
Nvidia announced the Rubin CPX, a solution that is specifically designed to be optimized for the prefill phase,…
xAI’s Colossus 2 – First Gigawatt Datacenter In The World, Unique RL Methodology, Capital Raise
Much has been written about xAI’s Colossus 1. The Memphis build belongs in the history books: the largest…