The argument about that European free trade agreements with the South American ones Mercosur-States doesn’t stop. While the EU leadership wants to sign the deal on Saturday in Uruguay, there is new resistance in the European Parliament. It could delay the implementation of the agreement, but also trigger a showdown within the EU institutions.
On Wednesday, MPs will decide at their plenary session in Strasbourg whether they want to seek an opinion from the European Court of Justice on the compatibility of the agreement with the EU treaties. If they opt for a legal review by the ECJ, that would delay ratification by at least a year.
However, the EU Commission wants to prevent this. Mercosur is their top priority. Given the protectionist policies in the USA and China, the deal has geopolitical and geoeconomic significance, emphasizes the Brussels authority. The EU must show its colors and work more than ever for rules-based trade.
Authority chief Ursula von der Leyen even seems prepared to snub parliament for this – and to implement the Mercosur deal even before it has been approved by MPs. It is said in Brussels that you don’t necessarily have to wait for Parliament. Finally, other trade agreements would also be implemented, although they have not yet been finally ratified.
Parliamentary vote only in February or March
This even upsets liberal MPs who normally support von der Leyen. “The Commission and the Council of Ministers want to force Mercosur through,” warns Pascal Canfin, a French liberal. “Parliament cannot accept this!” Liberal group leader Valérie Hayer called on the Commission to wait for Parliament’s vote. Anything else would be a blow to democracy.
However, the parliamentary vote is not planned until February or March – far too late from the perspective of the EU Commission, which has the say in trade policy. Furthermore, a majority is anything but certain. It’s not just many French MPs who have reservations about the Mercosur deal; France was there too Consideration for farmers voted no in the Council of Ministers.
There is also resistance in Poland, Austria, Belgium and Ireland. Even from Germany, not all votes are safe. The German Greens have argued against the agreement until the very end because they fear environmental and climate protection. Now they are in favor of appealing to the ECJ – how they would vote in a parliamentary vote is unclear.
The majority ratio is very narrow. Conservatives, Social Democrats and Liberals have a mathematical majority, but it is only 40 votes above the necessary threshold. If 20 parliamentarians break ground, the agreement could fail in the European Parliament. Since there are also many opponents of Mercosur in the majority camp, the outcome is uncertain.
Only one thing is clear: As with many other EU laws, von der Leyen will again have to rely on right-wing and right-wing extremist voices – there will no longer be a “politically correct” deal with Mercosur. In the worst case, there is even a risk of a democratic debacle – if the EU Commission ignores Parliament and simply creates facts.