Until the Ukraine war, it was a dependency on Russian gas, but now Europe has made itself vulnerable to blackmail through too much liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the USA. LNG purchases from the US have quadrupled to 57 percent since 2021 and could account for up to 80 percent of total LNG imports to Europe by 2030, warnt der US-Thinktank Institute for Energy Economic and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). It is “risky in terms of foreign policy and dangerous in terms of security policy that this Chancellor does not understand that independence from fossil energy is a security policy strategy for the European Union,” said Green Party co-parliamentary group leader Katharina Dröge in the direction of German Prime Minister Friedrich Merz (CDU).
Against the background of US President Donald Trump’s threats to Greenland, the second part of the customs agreement with Washington must be “gradually reversed,” demanded Dröge. Last summer, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen promised Trump the purchase of fossil fuels such as LNG gas worth $750 billion by 2028 if he agreed to low tariffs on EU imports.
If this happens, 40 percent of total EU gas imports – LNG and non-liquefied gas – would come from the USA. However, because of Trump’s claim to Greenland, there is currently no majority in the EU Parliament for the agreement, just like there is for the EU-US customs agreement.
Excessive dependence on US liquefied natural gas is “contrary to the REPowerEU plan,” emphasizes the think tank. The EU actually wanted to improve its energy security through diversification, reducing demand and making energy prices more affordable.
USA is second largest gas importer after Norway
This was only partially achieved. In order to end dependence on Russian pipeline gas, the EU has reduced gas demand by over 20 percent between 2021 and 2024. In addition, after Russia’s attack on Ukraine, imports have now been reduced by around 75 percent. Europe should be completely independent of Russian natural gas by the end of 2027 at the latest. The largest importers by pipeline or ship in 2025 were Norway with 89 billion cubic meters, followed by the USA (81) and still Russia (37). In 2021, Russia delivered 151 billion cubic meters.
Environmental and climate activists had always warned against the expansion of LNG terminals in Germany because the new facilities are fossil fuel infrastructures whose use is designed to last for decades: there are currently around the world Planning for 279 LNG projectsincluding export and import terminals as well as expansions to existing facilities. US projects account for around 40 percent of planned export capacities, followed by Russia with 20 percent and Qatar with 8 percent.
Germany also has supply contracts with Qatar. Starting this year, an agreement will begin with the emirate to import fossil LNG until 2041. This will involve 2.8 billion cubic meters of gas per year. For comparison: Germany consumes around 90 billion cubic meters per year.
Europe’s LNG dependence is a direct result of a hesitant energy transition
Milan Babic, University of Amsterdam
“Europe’s LNG dependence is a direct result of a hesitant energy transition,” says Milan Babić, professor of political economy at the University of Amsterdam. There are only two ways to free yourself from this trap: “Firstly, a very rapid, concerted and, if possible, complete decarbonization” of industry and the building sector, emphasizes the geoeconomics expert. Secondly, Europe needs “a massive expansion of energy efficiency measures, which must also be coordinated across the EU”.
How fatal the new dependency could be was already apparent last October. In a joint letter, the USA and Qatar threatened the EU Commission with a stop to the supply of LNG gas if sustainability standards were not reduced as part of the negotiations on weakening the supply chain law. These would pose “a significant risk to the affordability and reliability of critical energy supplies for households and businesses across Europe,” the Reuters news agency quoted the letter as saying.