The time of resistance has begun. This is the impression given by the hectic hustle and bustle that began in Brussels after US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threat. EU Council President António Costa has called a special summit of 27 heads of state and government in Brussels on Thursday to find an answer to Trump’s “tariff hammer”.
Before that, there may be one last opportunity for direct dialogue – at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Trump is expected there on Wednesday. EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen is scheduled to give a speech on Tuesday. It is still unclear whether von der Leyen will follow the hard line taken by French head of state Emmanuel Macron – or whether she will follow Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who has so far expressed himself very cautiously.
What is clear, however, is that Brussels has to react. Trump’s threats are not only fueling the conflict over Greenland. They also endanger the European economy and aim to divide the EU. The new “customs hammer” will initially only affect eight countries – including Germany. The Eastern Europeans, for example, are spared. Since trade policy in the EU is communitized and tariffs always apply to all 27 member states, this is a provocation.
The EU Commission has already announced that it will reactivate the counter tariffs on US products amounting to 93 billion euros that were drawn up at the beginning of February. Like Trump’s punitive tariffs, they could come into force on February 1st, a spokesman said. The EU has a large arsenal of possible retaliatory measures. The most discussed is the so-called “trading bazooka” ACI.
What is ACI and what are the chances of its application?
The “Anti-Coercion Instrument” is intended to protect the EU against economic pressure and attempts at blackmail and to enable countermeasures, such as retaliatory tariffs. In addition, US companies could be excluded from awarding public contracts. The EU can also impose specific import and export restrictions.
France in particular has spoken out in favor of using the ACI. Germany and Italy, on the other hand, are on the brakes. The Italian head of government Giorgia Meloni is considered a “Trump understander”. She downplayed the customs dispute and called it a mere “mistake”.
What will happen to the trade deal with Trump concluded in 2025?
The controversial agreement is on hold because of the new customs dispute. The European Parliament will not approve the trade deal until further notice, said the head of the leading EPP group, Manfred Weber (CSU). The chairman of the responsible trade committee, Bernd Lange (SPD), made a similar statement.
However, it is unclear what happens next. The Council, which represents the 27 EU countries, approved the deal at the end of November. Germany and some other countries have warned of a trade war. The EU could therefore try to re-enter negotiations. The USA has secured the abolition of all tariffs on its products, and a tariff of 15 percent applies to EU goods.
Why would it be worthwhile for the EU to impose higher tariffs on agricultural imports from the USA?
Farmers are one of Trump’s most important and loyal voter groups. The agricultural industry represents a massive power factor, especially in crucial states like Iowa or Wisconsin. But these voters are also dependent on the EU because it is one of the largest agricultural export markets. Trump promised farmers back in December $12 billion additional subsidies after complaining about the loss of export opportunities as a result of its tariff policies.
Which agricultural imports from the USA could the EU tax more heavily?
In 2024, around 20 percent of agricultural imports to the EU from the USA were oil seeds such as soy, according to the federally owned Thünen Agricultural Research Institute. So far the EU has not levied any customs duties on this. She could now do that to put pressure on Trump. Already with his first punitive tariffs in April 2025 25 percent discussed. The price for the Europeans would be small. “If US soy became more expensive, then we would just buy soy somewhere else,” says Professor Martin Banse from the Thünen Institute to the taz. South America in particular could be considered as a replacement supplier. “They still have enough for us.” Prices wouldn’t change much because US soy would remain on the world market.
23 percent of agricultural imports into the EU from the USA are fruits and vegetables, especially almonds and nuts. According to the Thünen Institute, Europeans are already charging for this 9.7 percent Customs service. However, US almonds come primarily from California – a stronghold of Democrats and Trump opponents.
What other options are there for resistance?
One possibility is the much discussed but repeatedly rejected digital tax. It would hit US companies like Google or Facebook and create financial compensation for Trump’s threatened punitive tariffs. The Left and the Greens in particular are promoting the digital tax, but the EU Commission has rejected it.
Another option would be to impose sanctions. This is what the Europeans did when Russia annexed Crimea; They could act similarly if the USA took over Greenland. The EU could also restrict the import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the USA. Von der Leyen wants to make Europe independent in energy policy – after Russia, it would be the USA’s turn.