The last time that a blue wave powered Democrats to a House majority in 2018, 11 so-called Blue Dogs ousted Republicans, leaving the party in charge with a slim majority. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi would affectionately refer to the Blue Dogs as “majority makers,” explaining that their conservative politics may be out of step with the party’s base, but without them, the party would be nowhere.
The same was true in 2006 and 2008, when Blue Dogs made the difference for Democrats, exactly as they had promised to do when they organized themselves in 1995 in response to the 1994 Republican wave.
This cycle, instead of taking on Republican incumbents and working to maximize a potential Democratic majority, the Blue Dogs have been spending their scarce resources against other Democrats. A review of financial disclosures, coupled with interviews of campaign operatives, reveal that the coalition’s largest expenditure since the primaries has boosted Mike Thompson, treasurer of the Blue Dog PAC, against another Democrat.
This decision is all the more confusing considering that the Blue Dogs backed a candidate in Florida during the primary who is facing an uphill battle against Republican Ryan Elijah. Blue Dog Action spent $700,000 during the primary to get Bale Dalton over the top in Florida’s 7th district, beating out two Democrats to his left. Cook Political Report shifted the race from Likely R to Lean R in the days before the election.
Instead of putting more money behind Dalton, the super PAC has dumped $1.73 million into a general election in California that pits Thompson against another Democrat, Eric Jones, a venture capitalist who has spent $15 million self-funding his anti-corporate, populist campaign focused on getting corporate money out of politics. In other words, rather than spend money helping Democrats retake the majority, Blue Dog Action is spending to maintain their dwindling position.
Blue Dog Action Fund is also dedicating the closing days of the election to complaining about another Democrat running, Matt Dunlap. Last year, Dunlap launched a primary challenge to Rep. Jared Golden, a former co-chair of the Blue Dog Coalition. Golden responded by retiring, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee got behind State Sen. Joe Baldacci in the primary, arguing that Dunlap was too progressive to win the general election. Dunlap won the primary narrowly, the party rallied behind him, and now he faces Republican Paul LePage.
But the Blue Dogs haven’t forgiven Dunlap. The co-founder of the Blue Dog’s super PAC recently went on the record criticizing the House Majority PAC’s decision to invest in Maine instead of Florida’s 7th district. “I’m not sure what HMP was thinking here,” said Phil Gardner, referring to House Majority PAC’s decision to cut ad reservations in FL-07 from $3.9 million to $1.95 million, calling it “bonkers they’re dumping so much money” behind Dunlap in favor of Dalton—who he called “one of the party’s best recruits.”
Gardner, who was speaking to Axios, is a senior advisor to Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.).
Republicans, meanwhile, have spent more than $11 million to date supporting former Governor Paul LePage there, signaling that the GOP believes the race is extremely competitive.
HMP recommitted an additional $1.7 million investment in Florida roughly one week after Gardner’s critiques were published. Defending this decision, Gardner told Drop Site that, “Spending for Red to Blue candidates in tied races is the entire reason HMP exists. I can’t believe any ‘Democratic campaign operative’ thinks it’s the job of a group besides HMP to do HMP’s core mission.”
With their spending decisions this cycle, critical Democratic colleagues say, the Blue Dogs are forfeiting the argument that while they may be out of step politically with the base of the party on issues like Medicare for All, at least they are important to win a majority.
“Money has to be moved to the races that are in most need, regardless of what flavor of Democrat they are,” a Democratic member of Congress granted anonymity to weigh in, said. “Any group that is advocating for a certain type of Democrat should use their money where it matters first and not dictate to those trying to get a majority as a priority.”
A national Democratic operative concurred. “Instead of spending the final days of the midterms working to grow their caucus and help take back the House—they’re attacking red-to-blue candidates and wasting close to $2 million on a Safe D race,” the operative said. “It’s one of the most idiotic things I’ve ever seen.”
Gardner dismissed criticisms of Blue Dog Action’s spending choices, saying, “Given that I’ve discussed both of those investments in advance with HMP’s leadership, I can’t imagine HMP is anything but grateful for BDA PAC’s support of Adam Gray, a Frontline incumbent, and Mike Thompson, an ally of Leader Jeffries, given HMP’s priorities elsewhere on the electoral map.”
The Blue Dogs are also spending $425,000 to protect incumbent Rep. Adam Gray. In this race, there’s a Republican on the other side, though Cook Political Report lists the California district as “likely Dem.”
Blue Dog PAC, a distinct entity from Blue Dog Action, has contributed directly to Democrats running for seats currently held by Republicans at other times this cycle, including $5,000 to Dalton. Other recipients received $10,000, including Rebecca Cooke, taking on Rep. Derrick Van Orden in WI-03, Jamie Ager, running for the NC-11 seat currently held by Rep. Chuck Edwards, and Bobby Pulido, challenging Rep. Monica De La Cruz in TX-15. And Johnny Garcia, running in TX-35 after Texas Republicans redrew it, has taken home the biggest slice of the pie among Blue Dog challengers at $12,500 in his contest against Carlos De La Cruz, the brother of the aforementioned congresswoman.
Blue Dog PAC raised a total of $2,196,255 this cycle, and has spent roughly $20,000 more than that. Blue Dog Action, on the other hand, has raised $7,267,677 and spent $6,852,972. As it stands, the Blue Dog Coalition only has 10 members remaining in Congress—Gluesenkamp Perez, Golden, Thompson and Gray, as well as Reps. Vicente Gonzalez, Luis Correa, Sanford Bishop, Jim Costa, Henry Cuellar, and Josh Gottheimer. Three of the ten are in competitive races, and Golden, of course, is leaving Congress.
“BDA PAC sent $225,000 to HMP within the last two weeks for HMP to support their general election activities, and I have encouraged BDA PAC’s donors to give to HMP for general election spending on Blue Dog candidates. So I’m confident on the whole this cycle Blue Dog Action has more than done its part to support House Democrats in their work to win the majority,” Gardner said.
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