Time is not on Iran’s side. While much could still happen to disrupt America’s progress in the war, the Iran strategy being pursued by the Donald Trump administration has given it the upper hand over Tehran.
You can see signs of that momentum in all three parts of the administration’s strategy: the blockade of Iranian ports, expanded sanctions, and escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz.
Imposing the blockade back in April was President Trump’s best decision of the war. He briefly lifted the blockade as part of the memorandum of understanding (MOU), a mistake that allowed Iran to benefit from a significant influx of cash, but the blockade again appears to be completely effective.
Iran used to export about two million barrels of oil per day through the Strait of Hormuz. Today, the number is zero, not to mention all the other commodities that moved in or out of Iran by sea before the war.
Blockade work-arounds by Iran such as shipping oil by truck likely amount to tens of thousands of barrels a day, a meager fraction. And the supply of Iranian oil for sale aboard ships located outside the blockade, led by U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) commander Admiral Brad Cooper, is dwindling fast. That supply will hit zero at some point in the coming weeks, cutting off yet another source of cash for the regime.
Read more
