Thursday, August 13, 2026 – Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warns of “even bigger miscalculation” on Hormuz after U.S. President Donald Trump claims U.S. has “total control.” Washington Post: U.S. intelligence viewed Israeli warning of Iranian plot to kill Trump as “low confidence.” Slight bump in Hormuz traffic. Iran reports oil pollution off Qeshm Island, calls for Hormuz environmental fees. Iran kills two accused of intelligence ties to U.S. and Israel. Yemen’s Saudi-backed government claims success against Ansarallah attack. Saudi tankers reroute around Africa as empty fleet heads toward Gulf. X suspends Ansarallah spokesperson account. Israel kills Palestinian child in Gaza City strike. Israeli strikes kill two, including Gaza police chief. Israel detains Palestinians, destroys homes, and re-establishes settlement in occupied West Bank. Hamas says it will participate in Palestinian elections in November. Israeli forces blow up and burn homes in southern Lebanon despite “ceasefire” framework. U.S. official says Israel expected to abide by Lebanon framework after Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz vows not to withdraw. Lebanese presidency denies report that President Joseph Aoun called Hezbollah a “cancer” in meeting with Trump. Multiple USS Abraham Lincoln sailors have tried to jump overboard amid extended deployment. Third detainee dies after detention at Newark ICE facility. DHS spent $464M on planes for deportations that have mostly sat unused. Trump administration awards controversial anti-trafficking group $158M contract for migrant child legal services. Treasury permanently halts shell company ownership reporting requirement. War Secretary Pete Hegseth says “anti-trafficking coalition” will do “bad things to bad people”. Russian military officer assassinated in Crimea. Civilian toll in Ukraine in July at highest level since May 2022. Taiwan throttles internet during anti-blockade drill. Turkey shares details of planned military cooperation under new defense pact. Japan protests Russian official visit to disputed islands. Australian military whistleblower released on parole. Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces appears to retake Kurmuk as drone offensive widens. RSF-appointed Kordofan governor defects, urges fighters to “return to homeland.” Cholera kills 1,721 people in South Sudan, over 110,000 infected in country’s longest-running outbreak on record.

Iran

• Iran FM warns of “even bigger miscalculation” on Hormuz after Trump claims U.S. has “total control”: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned the United States on Thursday against what he called “an even bigger miscalculation on the Strait of Hormuz,” a day after President Donald Trump claimed Washington had “total control” of the waterway. “The U.S. has long miscalculated due to intelligence failures. Case in point: The war on Iran,” Araghchi wrote on X. “Worse than fake news is fake intelligence. Be careful.” He ended his post: “Allah is Great, Greater than ANY power on Earth. In Allah we trust.”

  • Trump wrote on Truth Social on Wednesday that the U.S. had “total control over the Strait of Hormuz,” describing the U.S. naval blockade as a “WALL OF STEEL” and claimed “there is nothing Iran can do about it,” before concluding his post with: “Praise be to Allah!”

• Washington Post: U.S. intelligence viewed Israeli warning of Iranian plot to kill Trump as “low confidence”: U.S. intelligence officials were skeptical of Israeli intelligence alleging an Iranian plot to assassinate President Donald Trump, with one official describing the warning as “Israeli-derived, not U.S.-generated, and viewed as low confidence,” The Washington Post reported. Despite the doubts, the Secret Service took extraordinary precautions as Trump left a NATO summit in Ankara on July 8, secretly moving him from Air Force One in an airport catering truck to another military aircraft that flew him to Britain under F-16 escort.

  • “The Secret Service has had three near misses with this president, so they’re not taking any chances,” one official said.

  • Some U.S. intelligence officials, however, believed Israel provided the warning partly to influence U.S. policy, with a former official saying it fit a broader pattern of Israeli intelligence reporting “designed as much to shape presidential decision-making as to inform it.”

• Slight bump in Hormuz traffic: Fourteen vessels crossed through the Strait of Hormuz on August 11, up from twelve on both August 9 and 10, according to data cited by Kpler.

  • Of the 14 crossings, 12 vessels entered the Persian Gulf and only two exited.

  • Iran’s Persian Gulf Waterway Management Organization rejected claims by President Trump and U.S. officials that Hormuz was open on Wednesday, saying that the Strait “remains blocked and will not be reopened until Iran’s conditions are accepted.”

  • Hapag-Lloyd, one of the world’s top container shipping companies, reported on Thursday that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to conflict in the Middle East cost the group $600 million in its second quarter.

• Iran reports oil pollution off Qeshm Island, calls for Hormuz environmental fees: Oil pollution was documented at three coastal sites on Qeshm Island and in surrounding waters, with preliminary evidence pointing to a foreign bulk carrier as the source, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said in a post on X Thursday.

  • Baghaei said the incident underscored the need to include environmental protection fees in any future arrangement governing the Strait of Hormuz, arguing that all parties benefiting from shipping through the waterway have a “legal and moral obligation” to address environmental damage.

• Iran kills two accused of intelligence ties to U.S. and Israel: Iranian forces killed two members “affiliated with American and Israeli intelligence agencies” during a confrontation in southeastern Iran, the Islamic Republic News Agency reported on Thursday. The Iranian intelligence ministry also announced the arrest of four people accused of planning to destabilize the Sistan and Baluchestan province and damage its infrastructure.

Yemen

• Yemen’s Saudi-backed government claims success against Ansarallah attack: The Yemeni army repelled an Ansarallah attack on positions on the Al‑Mafalis zone in the southeastern province of Taiz in Yemen, according to an official of the Tor al‑Bahah military axis, an affiliate of the Saudi-backed government.

  • The official claimed that “the terrorist Houthi militias suffered heavy losses.” The government side also suffered casualties, with at least one soldier killed and another critically wounded in the clashes, Yemeni military officials told AP.

• Saudi tankers reroute around Africa as empty fleet heads toward Gulf: Saudi tanker movements are shifting amid continued shipping risks around the Bab Al-Mandab and Strait of Hormuz, according to researcher Ali (@MerruX). A fleet of Saudi VLCCs is sailing around the Cape of Good Hope, avoiding potential Ansarallah attacks near Bab Al-Mandab, while nearly all Saudi tankers remaining in the Red Sea have reportedly switched off their AIS tracking.

  • More than 12 empty Saudi tankers are reportedly heading toward the Gulf of Oman and UAE ports, potentially preparing to cross Hormuz and load crude. Their entry could replenish the shrinking pool of tankers inside the Gulf as outbound oil flows accelerate.

  • At Bab Al-Mandab, traffic rose modestly to 40 crossings on August 11, up from 36 on August 9 and 35 on August 10, though normal shipping patterns remain heavily disrupted.

• Ambrey joins major salvage operation for stricken tanker off Oman: Maritime risk firm Ambrey said it is involved in the salvage of the Caroline Bezengi tanker, which was struck near Oman’s Hallaniyat Islands in Dhofar, as part of a major international response involving salvage vessels, aircraft, specialist personnel, and more than 100 tons of equipment. Specialists have boarded the tanker with support from the Royal Air Force of Oman to begin stabilizing the vessel and its cargo. An international oil-spill response company has also been contracted.

  • Ambrey said the operation is complicated by extreme weather and sea conditions brought on by the Khareef monsoon. The internationally sanctioned tanker, carrying an estimated 800,000 barrels of Russian oil, ran aground on June 30 near an Omani marine nature reserve that is home to wildlife. The vessel had reported difficulties off Yemen on June 8 following an explosion. No group claimed responsibility for the attack.

• X suspends Ansarallah spokesperson account: The X account of Yahya Saree, the spokesperson for Ansarallah, has been suspended. It is unclear what prompted X to take down the account, which had over 121,000 followers, though a notice on the account says, “X suspends accounts which violate the X Rules.” For those who want to follow in real time, the spokesperson maintains a presence on Telegram.

Palestine

• Killed and wounded in Gaza: Over the past 24 hours, one Palestinian was killed and seven injured in Israeli attacks across Gaza, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health.

  • The total recorded death toll since October 7, 2023 has risen to 73,389 killed, with 174,266 injured. Since October 11, the first full day of the so-called ceasefire, Israel has killed at least 1,260 Palestinians in Gaza and wounded 4,154, while 808 bodies have been recovered from under the rubble.

  • VIDEO: Ryan Grim discusses Israel’s continued violations of the Gaza ceasefire agreement on Breaking Points here.

• Israel kills Palestinian child in Gaza City strike: An Israeli strike in the Beit Lahiya area of Gaza City on Wednesday killed a 10-year-old Palestinian child and wounded several others.

• Israeli strikes kill two, including Gaza police chief: An Israeli airstrike killed the director of police in the Gaza Governorate, Col. Jamal Abu Kamil, 43, after targeting his vehicle on Al-Rashid Street southwest of Gaza City on Thursday, according to Gaza’s Interior Ministry. Separately, a Palestinian was killed and several others wounded on Thursday in an Israeli drone strike on the Al-Amal neighborhood, west of Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip, WAFA reported.

• Israel detains Palestinians, destroys homes, and re-establishes settlement in occupied West Bank:

  • Bethlehem: Israeli settlers assaulted a child in Artas on Thursday, violently entering a home near the Solomon’s Pools tourist area and brutally beating a 16-year-old. Israeli settlers attacked a farm in Minya, stealing over 100 sheep and uprooting over 100 olive trees, WAFA reported. During the attack, the settlers reportedly attacked two residents of the farm, stole a vehicle and damaged another, and vandalized the house, with Israeli forces detaining three family members.

  • Jenin: Israeli settlers re-established the “Ganim” settlement on Thursday, 21 years after settlers left the area as part of a 2005 disengagement plan, tightening controls in the surrounding area and closing several roads. Defense Minister Israel Katz participated in the ceremony for the settlement’s reopening, alongside settler leader Yossi Dagan and members of the Knesset. The move comes days after Israel began demolishing 27 Palestinian buildings in the governorate.

  • Nablus: Israeli authorities forcibly evacuated the Palestinian families occupying two homes in Qusra, and seized 16 other homes as temporary military barracks, the village’s mayor told WAFA on Thursday. A Wednesday statement from the Israeli human rights group B’Tselem condemned the escalations in Qusra, noting that outposts are being used to “force the families out and take over their homes,” and said they were “not an isolated incident.”

  • Qalqilya: Israeli forces detained seven Palestinians in Qalqilya on Thursday morning, according to WAFA, all of whom were related to Palestinians recently killed by Israel.

  • Jericho: Israeli settlers demolished around 20 seasonal shelters used by Palestinian migrant farmers near Jericho on Thursday.

  • Hebron: Israeli forces detained 3 young Palestinian men from Beit Ummar on Thursday, according to WAFA.

  • East Jerusalem: Dozens of Israelis stormed the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem on Thursday, WAFA reported.

• Hamas says it will participate in Palestinian elections in November: Senior Hamas official Husam Badran told Al-Aqsa Radio that the movement has made a “clear decision” to participate in legislative and Palestinian National Council elections in November, calling for clarity about the schedule for elections to replace President Mahmoud Abbas as well.

  • Badran said the group seeks “the largest and broadest possible national coalition” of factions, independents and political blocs.

  • He also rejected attempts to sideline the group, saying that “no one has the right to impose a political condition for participation” in the elections.

Lebanon

• Israeli forces blow up and burn homes in southern Lebanon despite “ceasefire” framework: Israeli forces demolished and set homes on fire in Majdal Zoun and Mansouri and the surrounding valleys on Thursday, Lebanon’s National News Agency reported. Israeli forces also carried out explosions in Majdal Zoun and nearby valleys, while an Israeli infantry force was seen moving in the area between Aita Al-Jabal and Beit Yahoun in the Bint Jbeil district. Separately, Israeli aircraft struck Mansouri in two waves overnight.

  • Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam on Thursday reposted a statement on X condemning Israel’s “systematic destruction” of southern Lebanese villages after the original post was deleted, saying someone had gained access to his account and removed it.

  • Salam condemned Israeli attacks in Mansouri, Zawtar Al-Sharqieh, and Kfartabnit in the post, rejected Israel’s claim that it was targeting military facilities, and added that Lebanon’s sovereignty and southerners’ right to return and rebuild “are not matters open to compromise.”

• Report: Israeli forces are deliberately setting southern Lebanon ablaze: Israel dropped incendiary materials from drones and fired white phosphorus and flares into woodlands nearly every day since the June 17 ceasefire, Civil defense chief Hussein Fakih told The Guardian. He estimated fires have affected 30% to 40% of land near the frontline. Conservationist Hisham Younes called the campaign “ecocide,” saying the destruction is making the land uninhabitable.

• U.S. official says Israel expected to abide by Lebanon framework after Katz vows not to withdraw: The U.S. expects Israel to act in accordance with the framework agreed with Lebanon, a State Department official told Asharq, responding to Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz’s declaration that Israeli forces would not withdraw from areas they control in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza.

  • The official said a “permanent military presence in southern Lebanon is inconsistent with the commitments made under the framework,” which provides for a conditional, phased Israeli redeployment tied to Hezbollah’s disarmament.

  • Katz said Wednesday during a visit to an Israeli military position in southern Lebanon: “We will not move from here and we will not withdraw.”

• Lebanese presidency denies report that Aoun called Hezbollah a “cancer” in meeting with Trump: The Lebanese presidency’s media office denied an Al-Akhbar report, saying the remarks attributed to President Joseph Aoun were “incorrect.”

  • The Al-Akhbar report claimed Aoun told Trump that repeated attempts at dialogue with Hezbollah had failed, that the group was now under Iranian leadership, and that Lebanon’s Shiites did not support it to the extent it claimed. It also alleged that Aoun described Hezbollah as “the cancer Lebanon is suffering from” that required “complete eradication” rather than dialogue or partial solutions.

U.S. News

• Multiple USS Abraham Lincoln sailors have tried to jump overboard amid extended deployment: Concerns are growing about a mental health crisis and the risk of self-harm aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln as 5,000 sailors and marines are in their ninth month at sea—a record for an aircraft carrier—with worsening conditions onboard, according to reports in the Navy Times and Stars and Stripes.

  • Both papers reported thwarted suicide attempts by service members, with multiple attempts by sailors to jump overboard. The USS Abraham Lincoln was sent to the Gulf amid the Iran war and U.S. blockade.

  • Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) sent a letter to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Acting Secretary of the Navy Hung Cao on Wednesday demanding to know what action is being taken to improve conditions for sailors onboard. “There have been widespread reports of shortages of basic supplies, water contamination, plumbing issues, deteriorating mental health, deck safety concerns, and disruptions in the mail system,” Blumenthal wrote.

  • Rep. Mike Levin of California also cited military families describing poor conditions onboard, including “Moldy showers, broken toilets, laundry down for weeks, long stretches with no hot water, a meal that came down to half a cup of rice and two tortillas.”

• Third detainee dies after detention at Newark ICE facility: Jose Chajon-Raxon, a Guatemalan immigrant, died at a hospital as a result of a “medical emergency,” according to a Wednesday Department of Homeland Security statement, making his the third death connected to the Newark facility since it reopened in May 2025.

  • A nurse at the facility reported Chajon-Raxon had a seizure the day after he arrived at the facility, after which he was taken to the hospital, according to the DHS statement.

  • The New Jersey Attorney General’s office opened a civil rights investigation into the facility last Friday amid mounting scrutiny over its medical care and conditions.

• DHS spent $464M on planes for deportations that have mostly sat unused: The Department of Homeland Security spent $464 million on a no-bid contract last fall to buy ten used airplanes, justified as urgently needed for deportation flights, but has largely left the fleet idle, The New York Times reported on Thursday. Three luxury business jets were loaned or proposed for loan to other agencies, including one leased to the FBI for Director Kash Patel’s travel, and seven Boeing 737s parked for months at an airport in Lake Charles, Louisiana.

  • The contract went to Daedalus Aviation Corporation, an Arlington, Virginia firm with no prior federal contracts whose chairman donated to a political committee tied to former DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and separately received a nearly $700 million contract under her leadership.

• Trump administration awards controversial anti-trafficking group $158M contract for migrant child legal services: The Trump administration awarded Utah-based Our Rescue, formerly known as Operation Underground Railroad, a no-bid $158 million contract to provide legal services to unaccompanied migrant children, according to a Friday notice from the Department of Health and Human Services cited by NPR, though it remains unclear whether the group employs immigration lawyers.

  • Our Rescue was founded by activist Tim Ballard, subject of the 2023 film “Sound of Freedom,” who was later quietly removed after facing sexual exploitation accusations he has denied, and is now led by CEO Derek Benner, a former ICE official.

• Treasury permanently halts shell company ownership reporting requirement: The Treasury Department announced Tuesday it is permanently halting collection of “beneficial ownership” data about private American companies previously under the 2021 Corporate Transparency Act, a law intended to help law enforcement track shell companies used for money laundering and drug trafficking.

  • Beneficial owners are those who own 25% or more of a reporting company, according to the law. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called it a move to eliminate “a burdensome reporting requirement for millions of law-abiding business owners without compromising our national security.”

  • Sen. Elizabeth Warren said the move was “a gift to cartels, criminals and U.S. adversaries” that dismisses law enforcement warnings about the risks of underreporting.

• Hegseth says “anti-trafficking coalition” will do “bad things to bad people”: Hegseth called on military leaders from 18 Latin American countries to expand joint operations against drug traffickers at a Panama meeting of the U.S.-led counter-cartel coalition, declaring the group’s motto would be “we do bad things to bad people.”

  • Hegseth said Honduras and Colombia had agreed to allow joint operations alongside Ecuador and Guatemala, building on a Pentagon campaign that has conducted 66 boat strikes killing at least 221 people.

  • Hegseth claimed at the conference the strikes cut suspected drug vessels by more than half, though a recent Times investigation found cocaine remains as accessible in the U.S. as before the campaign began.

Other International News

• Russian military officer assassinated in Crimea: A Russian military officer was killed in a bombing in the city of Sevastopol in Russian-annexed Crimea. A Russian woman was arrested and accused of carrying out the assassination on behalf of Ukrainian intelligence services.

  • Russian Telegram channels identified the officer as Robert Shageyev, a former Ukrainian naval commander who reportedly defected to Russia during its 2014 annexation of Crimea.

  • Myrotvorets, an unofficial Ukrainian website ​that provides a database of people alleged to be as war criminals or ‌traitors, ⁠said Shageyev had been “liquidated.”

• Civilian toll in Ukraine in July at highest level since May 2022: The number of civilians killed in Ukraine in July reached its highest level since the first months of the Russian invasion, according to the United Nations. “At least 437 civilians were killed and 2,610 injured in Ukraine in July 2026, a 30% increase compared to June 2026…and a 70% increase compared to July 2025,” according to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission. “The number of child casualties (17 killed; 166 injured) was the highest since April 2022.”

• Taiwan throttles internet during anti-blockade drill: Taiwan deliberately slowed mobile internet service across the island’s north for 30 minutes on Thursday, testing communications disruptions during a simulated Chinese attack during a raid that included air-raid sirens and police clearing the streets of Taipei.

  • The exercise was part of the 10-day Han Kuang war games, which include military and civil-defense preparations for a potential invasion.

  • Taiwan’s navy and coast guard also held their first joint anti-blockade exercise on Wednesday, escorting a simulated merchant vessel to an east-coast port as a minesweeper cleared a navigation channel.

• Turkey shares details of planned military cooperation under new defense pact: Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia plan to establish high-level political and military bodies, conduct joint exercises, and expand defense production under the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement signed on August 7, Turkey’s defense ministry said.

  • The countries plan exercises involving ground, naval, and air forces, air-defense systems, and drones. They will also pursue joint weapons development and production, focusing on autonomous systems, electronic warfare, and artificial intelligence.

  • Turkey says the pact could expand to include other countries, including Egypt, and is also participating in talks in Jeddah over a proposed international coalition to protect Red Sea shipping.

• Japan protests Russian official visit to disputed islands: Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the island of Iturup on Thursday, marking his first trip to the Russian-administered Kuril Islands claimed by Japan. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called the visit “absolutely unacceptable,” while Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi summoned Russia’s ambassador to lodge a formal protest.

  • The islands have been disputed since the end of World War II when they were occupied by Russian forces who expelled the existing Japanese population and their status has remained contested between Tokyo and Moscow.

• Australian military whistleblower released on parole: Former Australian military lawyer David McBride was released on parole Thursday after serving 27 months for leaking classified defense documents that helped expose alleged war crimes by Australian special forces in Afghanistan.

  • McBride was sentenced in 2024 to five years and eight months in prison after pleading guilty to leaking classified documents and providing them to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

  • A subsequent government inquiry found credible evidence that Australian soldiers unlawfully killed 39 Afghans and two former Australian special forces soldiers were charged with war crimes.

  • McBride, who has been diagnosed with treatable lung cancer, will serve the remainder of his sentence under community supervision.

• RSF appears to retake Kurmuk as drone offensive widens: Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces appear to have retaken Kurmuk, a strategic town on the Ethiopian border, just one month after the army recaptured it, according to Sudanese analysts and local reports. Reports accused Ethiopia of enabling RSF operations in Blue Nile through drone flights and troop movements through its territory and Reuters had previously uncovered an RSF training camp near Assosa.

  • The army has not confirmed the loss, and the claim has not been independently verified.

  • The apparent capture followed an RSF advance through nearby Geisan, where fighting killed more than 20 civilians Tuesday and displaced roughly 2,500 people, according to UN agencies.

  • On Wednesday, the RSF launched drone attacks on Khartoum, Bahri, Omdurman, Atbara, Ed Damer and el-Obeid, marking its first strikes on the capital since May. Around eight drones hit el-Obeid, killing at least two people and wounding others, Reuters and the UN reported.

  • Emergency Lawyers separately accused an army vehicle of killing five civilians, including women and children, near Jabra al-Sheikh in North Kordofan. Sudan Tribune reported that the SAF thwarted an RSF assault on the area.

• RSF-appointed Kordofan governor defects, urges fighters to “return to homeland”: Hamad Mohammed Hamid, appointed governor of Sudan’s Kordofan region last year by the Rapid Support Forces-linked Tasis government, announced his defection from the RSF in an interview with Al Arabiya.

  • Hamid said the Sudanese people had no choice but to unite against what he called “unruly militias.” He accused the RSF of stoking tribal, communal, and racial tensions across the country, and said the Tasis government serves only as a political front for the paramilitary force.

  • Hamid, who was also named to the Tasis presidential council, called for legitimate state institutions to be restored across Kordofan and Darfur.

• Cholera kills 1,721 people in South Sudan, over 110,000 infected in country’s longest-running outbreak on record: South Sudan is battling its worst cholera crisis in recorded history, with more than 110,000 cases and 1,721 deaths reported across 55 counties since late September 2025. National Health Minister Luke Thompson Thoan cited poor sanitation, low immunity, and large displaced populations as key drivers of the outbreak. “That is a big number of deaths, and we are doing all we can to stop the epidemic,” he said,

  • Health officials are also managing a growing Mpox outbreak that has expanded from Juba to nine counties, with 128 confirmed cases, and are preparing for potential cross-border transmission of Bundibugyo Ebola from the DRC, outlining a $30 million, six-month preparedness plan.

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