Eight months into the US-Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz is still contested—and the oil shock nearly everyone predicted never arrived.
Gregory Brew, senior energy analyst at Eurasia Group and a historian of modern Iran, explains why crude sits in the $90–$110 band instead of $250: alternative pipeline routes, high global inventories, a steep cut in Chinese imports, and an oil market practiced at absorbing shocks. He also breaks down the US escort operation moving 9 to 10 million barrels a day through the strait—supertankers running dark through the Omani channel—and why he calls it a Band-Aid.
Also: the attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, Iranian production down to 2 million barrels a day, record US diesel prices ahead of the midterms, and why Brew expects Tehran to escalate rather than capitulate.
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Chapters:
0:00 Intro: Gregory Brew on the Oil War
0:22 Why the $250 Oil Catastrophe Never Came
4:59 7-Day Regional Oil Exports Average ~17 Million Barrels
9:18 Supertankers Going Dark Through the Omani Channel
11:41 How Long Can US Navy Keep Up Its Escort Operation Through Strait?
15:08 Qatar’s LNG Problem
17:46 Yemen and the Attack on the East-West Pipeline
22:47 Iran’s Oil Is Running Out — Will It Capitulate?
30:42 How Iran May Escalate
35:13 Diesel at Record Highs and PossibleExport Ban
39:37 Global Economy: Can it Absorb Another Year of This?
43:55 The Future of US-Iran Relations
48:55 A Divided GCC and the Case for Accommodating Iran
51:25 Closing
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