Election in Thailand: The march of the conservative establishment

When the votes in the early election are counted, the conservative Bhumjaithai Party is in the lead the incumbent Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul front. The reformist People’s Party follows a long way behind in second place, ahead of the Thaksin clan’s Pheu Thai party.

Apparently in anticipation of a possible strong performance by the People’s Party, the anti-corruption authority announced on election day that it would possibly open the long-standing proceedings against 44 leading politicians of the party on Monday because of a petition to reform the lese majeste paragraph 112. If convicted, the defendants face a lifetime ban from politics and the party, like its two predecessors, faces dissolution.

At around 10 p.m. Thai time, only just under 30 percent of the votes had been counted. But there is no doubt about the performance of the royalist-nationalist Bumjaithai as the strongest force in parliament. However, for a stable majority of the 500 seats, it needs coalition partners. However, due to massive ideological differences and the threat of legal action against its top leaders, the People’s Party is not an option. The right-wing nationalist Klatham Party under its top candidate Thamanat Prompow could become the kingmaker.

He was sentenced to six years in prison in Australia in 1994 for heroin smuggling, of which he had to serve four years. To this day, Thamanat denies heroin smuggling. The whole thing was a misunderstanding, the alleged heroin was just flour and he was just an uninvolved witness. In the governments of coup general Prayut Chan-o-cha he had been a minister.

“The winning party unites the political dynasties”

Bumjaithai’s assured victory had been expected by some analysts. “The political dynasties have united under the Bhumjaithai flag and won back their voters (from Pheu Thai and People’s Party),” says Phil Robertson, Advisor to the human rights organization Human Rights Watch (HRW). “The People’s Party continued to dominate among more sophisticated, reform-minded voters in Bangkok, but in many parts of the country its candidates fell far short of expectations, highlighting its difficulty in asserting itself against entrenched political interests in the provinces.”

Thailand is currently suffering from a stagnant economy and is the “sick man of Southeast Asia,” according to Burin Adulwattana, chief economist at Kasikornbank. Shortly before the election, he said that whoever formed the government would have to bring reforms to get the economy going again. The economic expert’s forecast: “If you don’t deliver, you’ll soon be gone.”

At least the People’s Party was able to achieve success. The Thais voted by a large majority in the referendum that they pushed through and took place at the same time as the election to draw up a new constitution. This will be the 21st since the abolition of the absolute monarchy at the beginning of 1932.