Hawaii's Big Island under rare hurricane landfall threat as Tropical Storm Lala strengthens
HONOLULU (AP) — Tropical Storm Lala is expected to strengthen to a hurricane before reaching Hawaii's Big Island this weekend, forecasters said Friday, bringing heavy rains that can cause destructive…
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French vs. American Stripes
It’s an American summer, or so they’re saying…which, not no. Chanel in New York. The Knicks. The World Cup. The 70ish degree weather with a faint breeze…for the most part.Weather…
Fall Preview in 5 Ideas
It’s that time of year where clients come out of the woodwork and every acquaintance I meet asks “So what are we wearing this fall?” So this week a brief…
A forecast of Chinese DUV and EUV photolithography progress
This post was written in collaboration between the AI Futures Project and The Substrate and cross-posted to both.Restrictions on photolithography machines are a crucial bottleneck for China’s AI chip efforts.…
Robotics Levels of Autonomy
Robots have powered manufacturing for decades, yet they stayed single-purpose and thrived only in perfect settings. Previous attempts at intelligent machines overpromised and underdelivered. But they were too early. Today,…
AI 2040: Plan A
For the past year, we at the AI Futures Project have been sinking most of our time into our next big scenario. Now it’s done! It’s called AI 2040: Plan…
Plan A: Suggestions For Further Work
Yesterday we released AI 2040: Plan A, but there’s lots of work left to do.We still have tons of uncertainty about the future of AI and the best strategies for…
How to pace the US frontier
IntroductionLast week, the Pacing the Frontier open letter, signed by over 1,000 frontier AI employees, requested “the U.S. government support an international effort to develop the technical and governance tools…
Scaling the Memory Wall: The Rise and Roadmap of HBM
The first portion of this report will explain HBM, the manufacturing process, dynamics between vendors, KVCache offload, disaggregated prefill decode, and wide / high-rank EP. The rest of the report…
Q2.5 2026 Timelines Update: Uplift and Revenue
Tl;dr: Our timelines haven’t changed much (they got slightly shorter) but our modeling and evidence base have noticeably improved, so we feel somewhat more confident.SummaryWe intend to regularly update our…
GPT-5 Set the Stage for Ad Monetization and the SuperApp
To many power users (Pro and Plus), GPT5 was a disappointing release. But with closer inspection, the real release is focused on the vast majority of ChatGPT’s users, which is…
H100 vs GB200 NVL72 Training Benchmarks – Power, TCO, and Reliability Analysis, Software Improvement Over Time
Frontier model training has pushed GPUs and AI systems to their absolute limits, making cost, efficiency, power, performance per TCO, and reliability central to the discussion on effective training. The…
Amazon’s AI Resurgence: AWS & Anthropic’s Multi-Gigawatt Trainium Expansion
Two-and-a-half years ago, we flagged a looming “cloud crisis” at AWS. Today, the evidence has mounted. AWS is the crown jewel of the Amazon empire, generating ~60% of group profits,…
Huawei Ascend Production Ramp: Die Banks, TSMC Continued Production, HBM is The Bottleneck
Compute is the lifeblood of AI. He who controls the spice controls the universe the compute will control the production of tokens and reap the benefits of AI. Without compute…
Another Giant Leap: The Rubin CPX Specialized Accelerator & Rack
Nvidia announced the Rubin CPX, a solution that is specifically designed to be optimized for the prefill phase, with the single-die Rubin CPX heavily emphasizing compute FLOPS over memory bandwidth.…
xAI’s Colossus 2 – First Gigawatt Datacenter In The World, Unique RL Methodology, Capital Raise
Much has been written about xAI’s Colossus 1. The Memphis build belongs in the history books: the largest AI training cluster, erected from scratch in 122 days. With roughly 200,000…
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