As the dust settles after an undeniable electoral disaster for Republicans, one thing is clear: These losses come down to the Iran war.
The exit polls have Donald Trump’s approval at 38 percent, lower than George W. Bush’s in 2006. Yes, the climbdown started on “liberation day” and coincided with a popular reaction against Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids. But it began really tanking with the war, dropping to 33 percent by August of this year. Polls suggest that a healthy majority of voters say he made the wrong decision in starting the war. CBS found that a quarter of Republicans agree. And though election analysis will say that voters ranked the cost of living higher than foreign policy issues—which is certainly true—this year, they are not separate issues.
Consider that just four days before he resumed hostilities with Iran in February, Trump was bragging about falling gas prices. At the time the national average was $2.98. By Election Day it was $4.15. Diesel jumped from $3.75 to $6.29. Estimates put the cost of the war at nearly $2,000 per family. The energy supply shock provoked inflation. So did Trump’s tariffs, though not as much. But in a price-sensitive environment, every dollar counts. Americans across the country have a lot of time to think about their credit card bill on their way to the gas station, grocery store, or bank. The war has shown up in nearly every American’s household budget. People have a reason to remember Trump’s decision every time they put their hand in their pocket.
And who can they look to blame? There was no vote authorizing the war in Congress, even though Republicans controlled both chambers. Anticipating a swift and undeniable victory, Trump never bothered to make a case for war to the American public. In February, he announced the resumption of war with Iran in the middle of the night one Saturday from Mar-a-Lago while most of America was sleeping. “Bombs will be dropping everywhere,” he said. Much of that address wasn’t even aimed at an American audience, but nominally at Iranians themselves, whom he encouraged to rise up. Congress was given a letter the following Monday.
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